According to the price data of IGBT products of the Ministry of Economy of Japan, although the price of IGBT has remained relatively high since 2018, its fluctuation is gradually slowing down and showing a relatively stable trend. Therefore, we expect that in the short term, the price of IGBT products will remain basically stable, and there is little possibility of a sharp rise in prices. In the long run, at least around 2020, there will still be some room for improvement in the price of IGBT products. We expect the future. In the past few years, IGBT prices are expected to show a steady upward trend.
In the short-term, there is a relatively small possibility that the global IGBT large-scale application field will increase again. The main reason for the increase of IGBT price in 2016-2017 is the large amount of IGBT used in global new energy vehicles, industrial automation and virtual currency. Growth, but at present, in the short term, the application of IGBT in these areas is basically in a steady upward trend, and it is unlikely that the demand will rise rapidly in the short term.
In the long-term, with the steady growth of the demand side and the continued supply tension, the supply and demand relationship of IGBT will remain in a state of tension until at least 2020, so we expect the long-term price of IGBT to rise steadily.
First of all, on the supply side, the production of power devices is difficult to transfer from the 8-inch production line to the 12-inch wafer production line due to process and cost constraints. However, due to the obvious trend of large-scale silicon wafers, according to the new semiconductor statistics, In recent years, the proportion of global silicon production capacity of 8 inches and below has continued to decline. In 2011, the capacity of 8 inches and below is more than 30%. In 2017, the capacity of 8 inches and below accounted for only 21% of the total silicon production capacity, down 13 points from 2011. In 2011-2017, the CAGR of 8-inch and below wafer production capacity is -3%, and the overall capacity tightening trend is more obvious. In addition, the gradual withdrawal of 6-inch wafer capacity has become a trend, forcing the original line of products to be transferred to the 8-inch production line, further increasing the 8-inch wafer capacity tension.
In addition, the shortage of 8-inch wafer equipment is also an important reason for the difficulty of long-term capacity expansion. According to data from used equipment supplier Surplus Global, in early 2018, 8-inch fabs required about 2,000 new or refurbished equipment to meet capacity requirements, but only about 500 units were available on the market, 8 The gap in inch wafer equipment has clearly become one of the bottlenecks limiting the expansion of 8-inch wafers. Finally, the limited price increase of 8-inch chips is also the reason for limiting the expansion of 8-inch wafers. We expect the price increase of IGBT products according to the statistics of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, the price increase of 8-inch wafers from January to August in 2018 is about 10%, but the price increase is limited compared with 12-inch wafers, according to SUMCO estimates. The price increase of 12-inch wafers in 2018 is about 20%, so the cumulative price increase in 2017-2018 will reach 40%, much higher than the price increase of 8-inch wafers. Therefore, under the influence of factors such as shortage of equipment, limited price increase and long expansion period, the shortage of wafers of 8 inches and below in a short period of time cannot be reversed. According to SEMI statistics, the growth rate of the maximum supply capacity of chips in the case of 100% capacity utilization in 2018-2020 is 0%, 0% and 1% respectively.
On the demand side, in recent years, new energy vehicles and industries have rapidly increased demand for devices such as IGBTs. First, in the field of new energy vehicles, according to Infineon's research, the value of semiconductors on the basis of traditional vehicles is 365 US dollars, of which about 300 US dollars is power semiconductors, and the value of pure electric vehicle semiconductors is about 750 US dollars. There are $450 for power semiconductors. In addition, the value of IGBTs for high-power pure electric buses is more than $1,000. According to the above assumptions, the demand for power devices for new energy vehicles in the world will be 63 million by 2020. If the demand for power devices in global charging piles is calculated, the demand scale will be around 81 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39%.
In addition to new energy vehicles, the industrial control field is also one of the most important sources of demand for power semiconductor devices (IGBTs), and will continue to grow in demand in the future. According to the shipment level of inverters and servo drives and the number of power devices used in a single machine in the next few years, the amount of power devices used in industrial automation in 2020 is about 520 million. In addition, according to the growth rate of different types of industrial robots and the number of servo drives, it can be inferred that by 2020, the number of power devices used in the field of industrial robots will be around 6 million. The industrial sector expects that the total demand for power devices will reach 520 million or more by 2020. The average growth rate of demand will be around 4%.
Through the above calculations, it is estimated that by 2020, the demand for power devices in new energy vehicles and industrial fields will reach 81 million and 520 million respectively. In addition to the above two main application areas, the field of centralized application of power devices includes rail transit, UPS power, new energy power generation, household appliances and lighting. Based on the above-mentioned field installed capacity/shipment growth rate and single-machine power device usage in the next few years, we estimate that the growth rate of power devices in the areas of 2018, 2019 and above will increase by 3%, 3% and 4% respectively.
Based on the above supply and demand relationship, we expect that the IGBT price increase trend will not be reversed at least until 2020. We estimate that the demand side growth rate of power devices from 2018 to 2020 is maintained at around 3%-4%, while the supply side growth rate is only about 1%. Overlay applications of analog chips, optoelectronic devices and sensors for 8-inch wafers are used. In the next few years, we will maintain a high growth rate. We expect that the supply and demand balance of IGBTs and other products will not change until 2020, and supply shortage will continue.
IGBT still has room for price increases, and the impact on domestic enterprises continues
It is expected that the impact on the gross profit margin of domestic industrial control enterprises will be around 1-2pct.
According to the relevant data of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and our judgment on the supply and demand relationship of medium and long-term IGBTs, we believe that by 2020, the price of IGBT products is expected to show a steady growth trend, and at the same time according to the price increase of IGBT products in Japan from January to August 2018, It is estimated that the price of IGBT products will increase by 10%-20% for the whole year of 2019. We still take McGomit as an example. In 2019, the price of IGBT products will increase by 10%-20%. When other costs are unchanged, the 2018 forecast data will be used as the calculation target, and the gross profit margin of the company's smart home appliance electronic control business will be Declining 1.1-2.2pct, industrial custom power supply gross margin dropped by about 1-2pct, industrial automation business will fall by about 1-2pct, so the total will affect the company's overall gross profit margin level of about 1-2.1pct. Of course, under the conditions of increasing production efficiency and preparing stocks in advance, the factors affecting the company's gross profit margin will be effectively alleviated.
From the above calculations, we can see that other industrial automation companies in China may be affected by this factor, except for Huichuan Technology's strategic cooperation agreement with Infineon, which can effectively prevent the continuous price increase of IGBT from squeezing the profit space.
IGBT delivery cycle continues to increase, domestic enterprise delivery capacity will be affected
In addition, in addition to a certain compression of the profit margins of domestic related companies, the shortage of IGBTs will also have an impact on the ability of enterprise order delivery. Due to the high proportion of foreign brands in domestic new energy vehicles and industries, with the continuous extension of delivery cycle, it may have a greater impact on the delivery of domestic industrial control and new energy vehicle motor electronic control companies.
According to Fuchang Electronics' statistics on the delivery cycle of IGBT products in the first half of 2018, the IGBT delivery cycle will continue to prolong in the future. In general, the lead time of IGBTs is around 8-12 weeks. However, the delivery period of most manufacturers in the fourth quarter of 2017 has been extended to 18-20 weeks, and in the first half of 2018, the average delivery period is extended to about 20-26 weeks, the delivery cycle for automotive IGBT modules take up to 52 weeks, the main supplier of IGBT Infineon, ON Semi, IXYS such as extended lead times are present phenomenon. Therefore, the phenomenon of IGBT components out of stock in some domestic industrial automation enterprises has gradually become prominent. Taking the new energy automobile industry as an example, due to the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, the supply chain capacity is insufficient. At present, major suppliers such as Infineon are still controlling the shipment while raising the price. Under the condition of short supply, the upstream yuan Device manufacturers can only focus on ensuring large customers, while small customers can hardly guarantee supply.
Under this circumstance, the concentration of industrial automation and new energy automobile industries with the most concentrated domestic use of foreign-funded IGBTs will be further enhanced. On the one hand, due to the high requirements for IGBT customization, upstream IGBT suppliers will give priority to leading enterprises with strong sales and purchasing capabilities in the absence of supply capacity. Therefore, SMEs must not only face rising raw material costs but also limited profits. The crowding of space, but also the risk of not being able to deliver orders in time. On the other hand, leading companies with abundant cash flow have the strength to prepare for stocking in advance of the IGBT supply shortage to alleviate the production problems caused by the extended IGBT delivery cycle.