A number of companies have fallen in stock prices, and the semiconductor market has turned cold.
Semiconductor giant Nvidia has fallen nearly half since it hit an all-time high of $292.76 per share on October 2. As of the close of November 19, the stock traded at $144.7. In the past 2016 to 2017, Nvidia is a “demonstration stock” in technology stocks. In 2016, its share price increased by 224%, and in 2017 it rose by 81%. In the third quarter of this year, revenue fell short of expectations and fell more than 16% after the market. Other chip companies in the US stock market also showed a downward trend, AMD fell 3.6%, Micron fell 1.7%, Intel fell 1.0%, and Apple fell 0.5%.
In addition to the United States, stocks of chip companies in other countries and regions also showed a downward trend. For example, TSMC and MediaTek were downgraded by the securities analysts for evaluation grades and target prices, reflecting the two major unhealthy factors that the legal person is worried about in the semiconductor industry, including the overall economic changes. Affecting the semiconductor industry environment, and relying too much on smartphones, the current slowdown in the mobile phone market has caused a reaction to semiconductors.
Senior industry observer Mo Dakang admits to the China Electronics News reporter that the industry's cold trend is indeed very obvious, especially in the fourth quarter of this year. This phenomenon is in line with the law. Both the memory manufacturing industry and the entire semiconductor industry are driven by “large quantities”. Therefore, some subtle and complex factors are amplified, and domestic enterprises should be fully prepared to deal with them.
Shengling Hai, vice president of semiconductor and electronics research at Gartner, told the China Electronics News that the phenomenon of industrial cooling is real. It is determined by the characteristics of the semiconductor industry and is related to the balance between investment and supply.
Multiple reasons superimposed, causing the market to turn cold
In 2017, the semiconductor market has reached a new high in memory consumption. From 2018 to the present, from the current situation of related companies in various fields such as materials, equipment, and design, the phenomenon of industrial cooling has become increasingly apparent. "The market turned cold, in summary, it can be divided into three reasons." Mo Dakang said.
Mo Dakang believes that the first reason is that the semiconductor industry is deeply affected by the memory price. The glory of 2017 is driven by the memory price. The decline in 2018 is also thanks to it, and it can be said that it is also memory, but also memory. At present, the "slowdown" and "cooling" that we have seen are also in line with the cyclical development of the semiconductor industry and the memory industry. Therefore, this trend seems to be objective and inevitable.
In addition to the decline in memory prices, the shrinking market for smart terminal products has also had some impact on the cooling of the semiconductor industry. "In the past few years, the growth of mobile terminal devices such as smartphones has made the demand for memory strong. However, the market for terminal devices such as smart phones is nearing saturation, the market is shrinking, and the semiconductor industry is also affected." Mo Dakang said.
The Internet of Things, automotive electronics, AI, AR/VR and other markets are very popular in the industry, but Mo Dakang believes that the emerging markets are only in the process of cultivation and growth, and the market space has not yet been developed. "The market for AI, AR/VR, automotive electronics, and the Internet of Things is undoubted for the semiconductor industry. But at present, these markets are just getting started. Especially in terms of transmission, 5G is still not mature, and the driving effects of these markets have not yet taken place. Can be played." Mo Dakang said.
He believes that not only that, but the development of the global semiconductor industry is also deeply affected by the international environment. International and regional economic and trade relations not only affect tariffs and related industrial chains, but more importantly, psychological impacts.
Boost confidence and respond to the cold period
Will the industry turn to a tight atmosphere? Sheng Linghai said that the semiconductor cycle is a normal phenomenon in the industry. The development of semiconductor itself will have many uncertain factors. The international environment and technological upgrading will affect the trend of the semiconductor industry. “But what is certain is that in the process of cyclical changes in the industry, companies should strive to extend the peak period and shorten the trough period. The trough period is not terrible. The terrible thing is that enterprises have no innovation, and the more innovative enterprises, During the trough, the more likely it is to find a new outbreak," Sheng Linghai said.
Look for opportunities in the crisis, resolve the crisis in the opportunity, prepare for the cold in the industry, and go through the cold winter is spring. Mo Dakang told reporters that in the face of the coldening of the semiconductor industry, the first thing Chinese companies should do is to enhance their confidence. China's semiconductor industry still has a certain gap from the international level, but the gap is not incapable of catching up. Chinese companies need to establish their own confidence before they can make a breakthrough. Under the active support of China's policies, semiconductor companies are now blooming everywhere in China. Mo Dakang said that it is very important to cultivate backbones in an endless stream of companies.